宁洱井的水位自2014年10月25日以来持续下降39.2cm，低于正常水位谷值8.335m，2015年的年变幅度为正常年变的57.8%，呈破年变现象。经现场调查，发现周围观测环境干扰小，水位变化量相对可靠；通过分析水位与降雨量的相关性，以及GNSS监测网的位移资料，认为持续低水位异常与降雨量关系不大，属于地震前兆异常，其原因可能与该区域构造的拉张活动有关。总结地震前兆异常的地震活动规律，认为该异常可能对近期滇西南-滇缅交界地区中强地震危险性有指示意义。

The water level in Ning'er well is lower than the normal level,which has dropped 39.2cm since October 25,2014. Its amplitude of annual variation is 57.8%in 2015,showing an abnormal annual variation. Field investigation reveals that there is little interference in the circumstances and the water level variation is relatively reliable. The correlation analysis of the water level and rainfall in Ning'er well and the displacement measurements from GNSS monitoring network in Yunnan show that the low water level in this period is discriminated to precursory anomalies,which is correlated with recent regional extensional tectonic activity,and with little rainfall. The seismogenic characteristic of the precursory anomalies can be an indicator for the moderately strong seismic risk in Southwest Yunnan and Junction area of Myanmar in the near feature.

P315

中国地震局监测预报司“2016年青年震情跟踪”（2016010310）和“2015年地下流体指标建设”共同资助