The law of earthquake recurrence in the northern section of North-South Seismic Belt fault system is studied based on the time-and magnitude-predictable model,and the corresponding time-and magnitude-predictable statistical formulae have been obtained by using the historical earthquake records and the fault slip rate data,then the strong earthquake recurrence probabilities of 4 major potential seismogenic subzones within the next 10 years are assessed. The calculation results show that the highest risk is in the Haiyuan fault belt(S1 subzone)with the integrated risk rate K=0.841,and its forecasted next main earthquake is M6.9. The second is the S2 subzone(the Tianqiaogou-Huangyangchuan fault belt,Xiangshan-Tianjingshan fault belt,Liupanshan fault belt,etc.)with K=0.480,and the forecasted next main earthquake is M6.4. The K values in the S3(Qilianshan tectonic belt)and the S4 subzones(West Qinling tectonic belt)are far lower than those in the S1 and the S2 subzones. The top 2 risky subzones are all located in the east of Qilianshan-Liupanshan tectonic belt.