2015—2024年四川三岔口地区重力变化特征
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P315

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2024年中国地震局震情跟踪项目(2024020202)、2025年四川省地震局科技专项(LY2516)共同资助


Gravity Changes in the Intersection Region of Xianshuihe-Longmenshan-An'ninghe Faults in Sichuan Province During 2015—2024
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    摘要:

    利用2015—2024年四川省龙门山断裂、鲜水河断裂和安宁河断裂交汇的三岔口地区的流动重力观测数据绘制重力场等值线变化图像,同时参考这10年间四川地区MS≥5.0的地震活动,分析研究重力变化特征。结果表明:①2015—2024年三岔口地区的重力变化特征对四川地区的强震、大震(如九寨沟MS7.0、泸定MS6.8等地震)具有中期“前兆”指示意义,显示出强震、大震的“窗口”意义;②三岔口地区外的九寨沟MS7.0地震前,重力正变化异常面积和数值快速增大,震后快速减小或者消失;③三岔口地区内的泸定MS6.8地震前,重力正变化异常的面积和数值持续增加较长时间,震后缓慢减小或者消失。本研究可为四川地区MS≥6.0地震的预测提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Based on gravity observation data collected in the intersection region of the Xianshuihe-Longmenshan-An'ninghe fault zones from 2015 to 2024, contour maps of gravity field variations are constructed. These maps, together with records of earthquakes with MS≥5.0 that occurred in Sichuan Province over the same period, are used to analyze gravity field changes. The results show that: (1) gravity variation characteristics in the intersection region from 2015 to 2024 exhibit mid-term precursory significance for strong and major earthquakes in Sichuan, such as the Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake and the Luding MS6.8 earthquake, indicating a distinct "window" effect for the occurrence of such events; (2) prior to the Jiuzhaigou MS7.0 earthquake, the extent and magnitude of positive gravity change anomalies increased rapidly and then decreased sharply or disappeared after the earthquake outside the intersection region; and (3) prior to the Luding MS6.8 earthquake, the extent and magnitude of positive gravity change anomalies increased over a period of time and then decreased gradually or disappeared after the earthquake within the intersection region. This study provides reference information for the prediction of earthquakes with MS≥6.0 in Sichuan Province.

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郑兵,唐伟,王伟力,易天阳,刘宏伟,崔靖锋,竹任国,何磊,白云波,廖明辉,张文,马伶俐.2015—2024年四川三岔口地区重力变化特征[J].中国地震,2025,41(4):690-703

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-18
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-10
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