日本中长期地震预报现状与启示
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P315

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国家重点研发计划课题“数据模型双驱动地震中期数值预测”(2023YFC3007303)、中国地震局政策研究课题“中长期地震预测信息适度公开形式、条件与社会稳定风险评估研究”(CEAZY2023JZ02)共同资助


Current Situation and Implications of Medium-long Term Earthquake Prediction in Japan
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    摘要:

    日本位于太平洋板块、欧亚板块、北美板块和菲律宾海板块交界处,是地震高发地区。1880年,日本成立世界上第一个地震学会,之后逐步完善地震相关法律制度和灾害应对体系。在中长期地震预测方面,1965年实施第一个地震预测“五年计划”并延续至今,1995年阪神大地震后成立地震调查研究推进本部,每月收集、分析和评估地震活动,每年更新日本及周边地区大震长期预测结果,并发布日本地震危险30年概率地图等。日本注重地震信息公开,最新的研究成果、预测预报信息、预警消息和大量具有人群针对性的科普信息,公众均可以在相关网站进行查询。但是由于地震预测预报的准确率不足,近些年来发生的多次大地震,如1995年阪神地震、2011年东日本地震和2024年能登半岛地震等,震前均未被准确预判,造成了严重的人员伤亡和经济损失,这也使得日本一度更加注重地震成因机理的科学研究和地震监测、预警工作,而对地震预报信心不足,投入精力有所削减。日本在中长期地震预报领域所做的努力和尝试,对同为地震多发国家的中国具有启示和借鉴意义。本文结合我国实际防震减灾工作,提出了完善防震减灾对策、提高建筑抗震能力、持续加强地震科普、考虑预报信息发布策略等具体建议。

    Abstract:

    Japan is located at the convergence of the Pacific, Eurasian, North American, and Philippine Sea plates, making it one of the most seismically active regions in the world. In 1880, Japan established the world's first seismological society and subsequently developed a comprehensive legal and institutional framework for earthquake disaster prevention and response. Following the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake, the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion was established to coordinate national earthquake research efforts. This institution conducts monthly analyses of seismic activity, annually updates long-term forecasts of large earthquakes in Japan and adjacent regions, and publishes nationwide 30-year probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Japan places strong emphasis on the disclosure and dissemination of earthquake-related information. The public has access to up-to-date research results, long- and short-term forecasts, earthquake early warning information, and extensive, targeted science outreach materials through official platforms. However, owing to the inherent limitations in the accuracy of earthquake prediction and forecasting, several major earthquakes in recent decades—including the 1995 Hanshin Earthquake, the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, and the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake—were not successfully predicted in advance, resulting in severe casualties and substantial economic losses. These events have prompted Japan to place greater emphasis on fundamental research into earthquake causes and mechanisms, while maintaining a cautious stance toward deterministic earthquake prediction and moderating related investments. Japan's long-term efforts and practical experience in medium-to long-term earthquake forecasting provide valuable lessons and references for other earthquake-prone countries, including China. These experiences underscore the importance of adopting proactive and comprehensive measures, such as improving earthquake disaster prevention policies, enhancing the seismic resilience of buildings, strengthening public education and risk communication, and responsibly disseminating medium-long term earthquake forecast information.

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李凯月,孙珂,周锐,叶茜.日本中长期地震预报现状与启示[J].中国地震,2025,41(4):768-780

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-19
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-21
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-10
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