东天山博格达北缘断裂古地震事件研究
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P315

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第三次新疆综合科学考察-新疆矿业活动、重大工程和地震地质环境影响考察与评价课题(2022xjkk1305)、中央高校基本科研业务费研究生科技创新基金(ZY20250304)、中央高校基本科研业务费(ZY20220205)共同资助


Research on Paleo-earthquake Events of the Bogda Northern Margin Fault,Eastern Tian Shan
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    摘要:

    博格达北缘断裂是东天山博格达地区的一条区域性活动断裂,作为博格达山北麓与准噶尔盆地的边界断裂,研究其古地震活动对于理解博格达北缘断裂的地震复发特性和强震危险性具有重要意义。通过野外断错地貌测量、遥感解译、探槽开挖和光释光测年等技术手段对博格达北缘断裂古地震事件进行研究,结果表明: 该断裂晚第四纪以来发生过2次古地震事件,自老到新分别记为事件EP1和EP2,事件EP1发生的时间在距今(20.79±1.24)~(14.55±0.76)ka之间,事件EP2的年龄范围是距今(14.55±0.76)~(8.94±0.45)ka。从探槽剖面可以判断该断裂至少8.94ka没有发生过断错地表的强震事件,表明断裂最新一次古地震事件的离逝时间在8.94ka以上,利用断层滑动速率与离逝时间可以计算得到断裂目前累积的垂直位错量在2.59m左右,根据地震震级与同震位移计算可知博格达北缘断裂未来具有发生7.0~7.5级大地震的能力,具有较高的强震危险性。

    Abstract:

    The Bogda northern margin fault is a regionally active fault in the Bogda Mountain area of the eastern Tianshan and forms the boundary between the northern Bogda Mountains and the Junggar Basin. Investigating its paleoseismic activity is of great significance for understanding the spatiotemporal recurrence of large earthquakes and assessing seismic hazard along the fault. Based on geological and geomorphological field investigations,remote-sensing interpretation,trench excavation,and optically stimulated luminescence(OSL)dating,we examined the paleoseismic characteristics of this fault. the results show that the trench profiles record two reliable paleoseismic events,which occurred at approximately (20.79±1.24)~(14.55±0.76)ka and (14.55±0.76)~(8.94±0.45)ka,respectively. Evidence from the trench profiles further indicates that no significant surface-rupturing earthquake has occurred along the fault during at least the past 8.94ka,suggesting that the elapsed time since the latest event exceeds 8.94ka. Based on empirical relationships involving fault slip rate and elapsed time,the current accumulated vertical displacement along the fault is estimated to be approximately 2.59m. Estimates derived from two empirical formulas indicate that the Bogda northern margin fault has the potential to generate a strong earthquake of magnitude 7.0~7.5. Therefore,the fault is considered to pose a high seismic hazard in the future.

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袁海洋,吴传勇,于晓辉,王雪竹,臧柯智,高瞻,马云潇.东天山博格达北缘断裂古地震事件研究[J].中国地震,2026,42(1):149-157

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-03
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-28
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