基于情景构建的地震巨灾人口转移安置协同机制研究——以京津冀地区为例
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P315

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河北省社科基金“京津冀地区地震灾害人口转移安置情景构建”(HB23GL044)资助


Collaborative Mechanism of Population Transfer and Resettlement for Earthquake Catastrophes Based on Scenario Construction—A Case Study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
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    摘要:

    为解决地震巨灾人口转移安置协同难题,以京津冀地区为案例,整合历史地震、建筑普查、人口普查等多源数据,采用情景构建方法复现里氏7.8级地震情景。通过建筑震害分析、日夜间人口分布差异研究等技术手段,量化评估区域内安置人口规模与转移安置需求,进而优化协同组织架构并设计自主协同、按需协同双轨响应流程,在此基础上构建核心承接、辅助支援、备用补位三级协同避难网络,并配套建立容量动态调配、跨区域物资调度、人员转移交通保障及特殊群体服务等运行机制,以有效适配跨区域人口转移安置的多元化需求。本研究可为完善超大型城市群巨灾应对体系、提升区域地震防灾减灾协同能力提供参考。

    Abstract:

    To address the challenges of interregional coordination in population transfer and resettlement during catastrophic earthquakes,this study takes the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region as a case study. By integrating multi-source data,including historical ground-motion records,building census data,and population census data,and adopting a scenario-based approach,a magnitude 7.8 earthquake scenario was constructed and reproduced. Through analyses of building seismic damage and differences in daytime and nighttime population distribution,the study assesses the scale of the population requiring resettlement and the corresponding demand for transfer and resettlement across the region. On this basis,it proposes an optimized collaborative organizational structure and a dual-track response process consisting of autonomous collaboration and demand-driven collaboration. the proposed three-level collaborative shelter network—core undertaking,auxiliary support,and backup supplementary—together with supporting operational guarantee mechanisms,including dynamic capacity allocation and cross-regional material scheduling,can effectively meet the diverse needs of cross-regional population transfer and resettlement. This research provides a scientific reference for improving the catastrophe response system of ultra-large urban agglomerations and enhancing regional collaborative capacity for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation.

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王慧彦,刘晓静,王建飞.基于情景构建的地震巨灾人口转移安置协同机制研究——以京津冀地区为例[J].中国地震,2026,42(1):171-187

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-12
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-28
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