加卸载响应比理论及其研究意义
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P315

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国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0109700)、国家自然科学基金地震联合基金(U2039205)共同资助


The Load/Unload Response Ratio Theory and Its Scientific Significance
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    摘要:

    加卸载响应比理论(LURR)自20世纪80年代提出以来,先后经历应用探索、实验验证以及创新发展阶段,目前已经在地震预测研究、滑坡以及大型工程结构的安全评估中得到广泛应用。本文详细介绍了LURR的理论模型,总结LURR应用于地震预测研究的历史和最新进展,同时归纳了其在地震预测研究应用中存在的问题、解决方法以及未来发展方向。事实表明,LURR是一种较有成效的地震预测理论,其在震前的显著增加显示了区域介质的高应力状态,峰值异常的出现则指示了孕震系统从塑性变形向峰后软化阶段的转变。运用LURR这一独特性质,可对区域地震危险性进行预测,结合各个局部LURR异常向整体的协同化转变程度,可能实现对未来强震发生的时间和地点进行预测。

    Abstract:

    Since its introduction in the 1980s,the Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)theory has undergone stages of exploratory application,experimental validation,and further theoretical development. the theory has been widely applied in fields such as earthquake prediction research,landslide studies,and the safety assessment of large-scale engineering structures. In the form of a review,this paper presents the theoretical framework of LURR,summarizes its development history and the latest progress in its application to earthquake prediction research,and discusses the major problems in its application to earthquake prediction,along with corresponding solutions and future directions. Existing evidence suggests that LURR is a relatively effective approach for earthquake prediction. A significant increase in LURR prior to an earthquake indicates that the regional medium has entered a high-stress state,while the appearance of peak anomalies signals the transition of the seismogenic system from plastic deformation to the post-peak softening stage. By exploiting this distinctive property of LURR,regional seismic risk can be assessed,and the occurrence of complex seismic sequences or strong aftershocks may be anticipated. In combination with the degree of coordinated evolution from local LURR anomalies to the behavior of the overall system,it may also be possible to infer the timing and location of future strong earthquakes.

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余怀忠,王海涛,李纲,贾东辉,薛艳,晏锐,陈界宏,杨文,曹玉秋.加卸载响应比理论及其研究意义[J].中国地震,2026,42(2):263-275

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-07
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-10
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