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基于层次分析的辽宁地区中强震预测指标体系及效能评估
曹凤娟, 焦明若
辽宁省地震局,沈阳市皇姑区黄河北大街44号110034
摘要:
本文从辽宁地区映震效果较好的预测指标出发,采用层次分析法建立了辽宁地区中强震预测指标体系,在此基础上,应用1~9比率标度法构建判断矩阵,进而计算各指标的权重。结果显示,10项映震效果较好的指标中,权重值居前3位的分别是短期预测指标中的前震序列、流体异常和b值。同时层次分析模型也给出了辽宁地区有无中强震的综合判定指标Y,Y值可较好地反映辽宁地区中强震的震兆强弱程度和异常可靠性,当Y≥1.41时(若有前震序列,则Y≥2.59),辽宁地区短期内存在发生中强震的危险。
关键词:  层次分析 模型 判断矩阵 权重 效能评估
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基金项目:中国地震局“十一五”科技支撑课题“华北构造区强震预测预警技术和指标研究”(2006BAC01803-04-03)和辽宁省地震局地震预测预警开发重点实验室“辽宁地区中强震预测预警信息平台研建”(LZD1102)共同资助
Efficiency evaluation of prediction indicators for medium-strong earthquakes in the Liaoning area based on analytic hierarchy
Cao Fengjuan, Jiao Mingruo
Earthquake Administration of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110034, China
Abstract:
Prediction index system model of medium-strong earthquakes in Liaoning is established using analytic hierarchy based on better predictors reflecting the earthquake in Liaoning. On this basis, we built the judgment matrix,with 1-9 ratio scale and then calculated the weight of each index. The results showed that the top three weight indicators were the foreshock sequence, fluid anomalies and b value in short-term predictors among 10 better predictors reflecting the earthquake. The analytic hierarchy process model also indicated that comprehensive predication index Y with medium-strong earthquakes in the Liaoning area, Y value can better reflect the strong or weak of earthquake precursor and abnormal reliability in Liaoning area. When Y≥ 1.41 (If there is a foreshock sequence then Y≥2.59), medium-strong earthquakes will be likely to occur in Liaoning in a short-term.[著者文摘]
Key words:  Analytic hierarchy Model Judgment matrix Weight Efficiency evaluation