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基于震例研究的地震预测预报分析
张桂铭, 刘文锋
青岛理工大学土木工程学院,山东省青岛市四方区抚顺路11 号266033
摘要:
对国内外45 例地震预测预报震例的相关资料与文献进行查证与整理,总结、分析了震例中采用的中长期预测方法、短临前兆异常以及预报结果。研究表明,对地震发生的时间、地点和震级三要素均明确预测的概率较低,且仅为三要素的粗略预测,准确预测地震目前尚难做到。中国在地震预测过程中更注重对短临前兆异常的观测,在震前小震活动异常、地下水化学组分、地下水状态、地磁、地电、地倾斜、地应力应变、电磁波异常、前震平静等前兆预测方法中,根据震前小震活动异常作出临震预测的成功率较高,可作为预测某些类型大震的重要参考指标之一;国外震例大多是对地震进行中长期预测,在中长期预测结果的基础上采取以“防”为主的防震减灾策略,长期预测的理论和方法比中国丰富。
关键词:  地震预测预报  震例  地震预测现状  中长期预测方法  短临前兆
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(50878110)资助
Analysis of earthquake forecast /prediction based on cases research
Zhang Guiming, Liu Wenfeng
Qingdao Technological University,Qingdao 266033,Shandong,China
Abstract:
45 cases of earthquake forecast / prediction at home and abroad were verified and collected. Methods of long-term earthquake prediction,short-term precursor information and results of earthquake prediction are discussed and analyzed. Research shows that the probability of completely accurate earthquake prediction which must include time,place,and magnitude of earthquake is low and most cases are relatively rough prediction of three elements of earthquake. It is rather difficult to achieve accurate forecast at present all over the world. Chinese researchers pay more attention to observation of short-term precursor in the process of earthquake forecast. Of all these short-term precursor methods which include abnormal weak seismic activity,chemical components of groundwater,underground water conditions,terrestrial magnetism,terrestrial electricity,crustal inclination,in-situ stress and strain,electromagnetic wave and quiet process of small shocks before earthquake,the method of abnormal weak seismic activity before earthquake has higher probability of forecasting earthquake successfully,and should be one of indexes of forecasting some earthquakes. Most cases of foreign countries are the long-term prediction of earthquake with the view to preventive strategies. Foreign countries have purposed more theories and methods of long-term earthquake prediction than China.
Key words:  Earthquake forecast /prediction  Cases  Status of earthquake prediction  Techniques of earthquake prediction  Short-term precursor information