| 摘要: |
| 亚洲是全球地震活动，特别是浅源地震活动最活跃的地区之一，由于亚洲大多数国家属于发展中国家，抗御地震的能力偏低，导致地震灾害十分严重。本文采用最大似然法，据亚洲9个国家历史上因各次地震死亡的人口资料，计算得到了各国不同时期因地震造成不同死亡度的概率曲线；另外，由各国每10年的人口统计资料，拟合得到各国人口的增长曲线。将历史上因各次强震的死亡人数归一到2010年人口的死亡数字，并以此数据给出了各国在考虑了人口增长情况下的因震人口损失预测结果。 |
| 关键词: 最大似然法 亚洲 地震 人口损失预测 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:河北省地震科技星火计划“空间光滑地震活动性模型在河北省的中长期预报和地震危险性评价中的应用”、国家科技支撑计划课题(2008BAC44B02-0301)联合资助 |
|
| Life loss prediction in earthquakes based on maximum likelihood method in Asia |
|
Qi Yuyan1) Sun Lina1) Jin Xueshen1) Fu Zhengxiang2)
|
|
1)Earthquake Administration of Hebei Province，Shijiazhuang 050021，China；2)Institute of Earthquake Science，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100036，China
|
| Abstract: |
| Asia is one of the most seismically active regions of the globe，especially the shallow earthquakes. Since most Asian countries are developing countries with low ability of earthquake resistance，leading to serious earthquake disasters. In this paper，the probability curves of morality in the future of different periods have been obtained by the maximum likelihood method through the death database loss in earthquakes of 9 Asian countries. In addition，historical life death data is categorized into 2010 according to the population growth curves fitted by demographic data every ten years. The results of the life loss prediction considering the population increase have been obtained on this basis. |
| Key words: Maximum likelihood method Asia Earthquake Life loss prediction |
