| 摘要: |
| 在对松原地区开展的活断裂探测工作中发现了一条晚更新世活动断裂，称之为孤店断裂。本文通过三维地震资料获得了孤店隐伏活动断裂的地下细部结构，在对其地质构造、第四纪活动性、历史地震记录及地震活动性等进行综合研究的基础上，采用石油物探三维地震资料获得的基岩破裂长度进行经验关系拟合，对其潜在地震最大震级进行了评估，评估结果认为其约为MW,7。此外，采用地震矩方法获得复发周期、年发生率等定量参数，利用中国大陆古地震复发概率模型估算出孤店断裂未来50～200a的大地震发生概率。 |
| 关键词: 城市活断层探测 隐伏活断层 发震概率 复发周期 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费研究生科技创新基金项目(ZY20150303)、国家国际科技合作专项项目(2012DFR20440)、财政部重大专项“中国地震重点监视防御区活动断层地震危险性评价”、中国地震局教师基金(2012001)及中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金创新团队资助计划项目(20120102)共同资助 |
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| Quantitative seismic risk evaluation on blind Gudian Fault in Jilin Province on petroleum geological and historical seismic data |
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Shao Bo1) Shen Jun1) Li Yingzhen1) Yu Xiaohui1,2) Dai Xunye1) Yuan Junfeng1) Yu Yang3)
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1)Institute of Disaster Prevention，Langfang 065201，Hebei，China；2)Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029，China；3)Lanzhou Institute of Seismology，CEA，Lanzhou 730000，China
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| Abstract: |
| One of the most important purposes of active fault detection is to evaluate the seismic risk of active fault on detection result. A large number of facts show that the blind active faults in eastern China have the capability of earthquakes with MS≥7.0. During the active faults detection work in Songyuan，we found an active fault，which was called the Gudian fault. In this article，detailed underground structure of the fault is obtained through 3D seismic data. The latest activities and sliding rate are obtained from the shallow seismic exploration and the terrace borehole work. On the basis of comprehensive study on the geological structure，the quaternary activity，historical earthquakes and earthquake activities of the fault，we evaluate the potential maximum earthquake magnitude on subsurface fracture parameters，and confirm that the fault has been active since late Pleistocene，with the ability of earthquakes with MS7.0. In addition，the recurrence period or the annual rate is calculated by seismic moment ways. The historical earthquake recurrence probability model of Chinese mainland is adopted to calculate the occurrence probability of the Gudian fault in the coming 50～200 years. |
| Key words: Urban active fault detection Blind active fault Occurrence probability Recurrence period |
