Abstract:Artificial earthquake catalog simulation is one of the effective ways to improve the incompleteness of existing earthquake catalogs as well as the scarcity of large earthquake records to meet the needs of the seismological research. Based on the Poisson distribution model of seismic activity and the Gutenberg-Richter earthquake magnitude-frequency relationship hypothesis,a Monte-Carlo random independent repeated test method is used to simulate the Fenwei belt in the next 30 years,50 years,and 100 years. The analysis shows that the annual occurrence rate and b-value of the simulated catalog are completely consistent with the set GR relationship,which is consistent with the Poisson distribution hypothesis. The errors of b-value and annual incidence obtained from simulation of different years are given. Using this method,we can get better simulation results of long-term earthquake catalog. Based on the catalog of simulated earthquakes,the future seismic trend in this area is analyzed,providing reference for the analysis of seismic hazard.