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地震短期综合预测的一种思路
王俊菲, 冯志生, 沈红会, 孙业君, 李锋, 王维, 缪阿丽, 李鸿宇
江苏省地震局, 南京 210014
摘要:
本文介绍了一种地震短期综合预测思路,即以虚报率较低的短期异常作为“引信”,在出现1个或数个“引信”异常后,再依据其它异常综合判定发震地点和震级,其优点是据此做出的综合预测意见的成功率较高。本文以2012年江苏高邮-宝应4.9级地震和2016年江苏射阳4.4级地震的震前实时跟踪过程为例,详细介绍了该思路的应用,该综合预测思路对指导今后震情跟踪工作有实际意义。
关键词:  综合预测  引信  异常
DOI:
分类号:P315
基金项目:江苏省地震局青年基金(201506QY)资助
A Comprehensive Approach to Short-term Earthquake Prediction
Wang Junfei, Feng Zhisheng, Shen Honghui, Sun Yejun, Li Feng, Wang Wei, Miao Ali, Li Hongyu
Jiangsu Earthquake Agency, Nanjing 210014, China
Abstract:
This paper introduces a comprehensive approach to short-term earthquake prediction. The basic idea is to use short-term anomalies with low false alarm rate as "fuze". After one or more "fuze" anomalies occur, the location and magnitude of the earthquake are comprehensively determined according to other anomalies. The advantage of this method is the high success rate of the comprehensive forecast. In this paper, taking the real-time pre-earthquake tracking process of the Gaoyou-Baoying, Jiangsu earthquake with MS4.9 in 2012 and the Sheyang, Jiangsu earthquake with MS4.4 in 2016 as an example, the application of this idea is introduced in detail in this paper. This method is of practical significance for tracking short-term earthquake conditions in the future.
Key words:  Comprehensive prediction  Fuze  Abnormal