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基于ShakeMap_CNST的2017年精河6.6级地震灾害快速评估
刘军1,2, 谭明2, 宋立军2, 郝婧1, 毕雪梅3, 王新刚2, 常想德2
1.贵州省地震局, 贵阳 520001;2.新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 乌鲁木齐 830011;3.江苏省地震局, 南京 210000
摘要:
基于考虑区域地震动衰减关系、场地效应及震中破裂等多因素的烈度快速评估模型,结合震害预测方法,研发了一套震害预测系统,并以2017年8月9日精河MS6.6地震的震害预测为例,将对其的预测结果与当前主流系统进行对比。结果表明,采用ShakeMap_CNST系统能对地震的影响范围和烈度进行更为准确的估计,在人员伤亡、受灾人口估计、紧急安置人数及经济损失评估等方面,相对于其他系统,本系统的结果与现场调查的结果更为接近。
关键词:  ShakeMap_CNST  烈度图  地震动  震害预测  2017年精河6.6级地震
DOI:
分类号:P315
基金项目:“十三·五”国家科技重点研发计划项目课题(2017YFC1500905)、贵州省地震科技基金项目(GZDZ201901)、中国地震局星火计划课题(XH15044Y)共同资助
Rapid Assessment of the 2017 Jinghe MS6.6 Earthquake Disaster in Xinjiang,Based on ShakeMap_CNST
Liu Jun1,2, Tan Ming2, Song Lijun2, Hao Jing1, Bi Xuemei3, Wang Xingang2, Chang Xiangde2
1.Guizhou Earthquake Agency, Guiyang 550000, China;2.Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China;3.Jiangsu Earthquake Agency, Nanjing 550000, China
Abstract:
Based on the regional earthquake ground motion attenuation relation,the site effect and the earthquake intensity and many factors,we eestablished a prediction model of earthquake damage,and developed a set of earthquake damage prediction system. Taking the earthquake damage prediction of the Jinghe MS6.6 earthquake,Xinjiang on August 9,2017 as an example,the prediction results are compared with the current mainstream system. The results show that the ShakeMap_CNST system can make more accurate estimation in terms of the influence scope and intensity. Compared with other systems,the system results are very close to the field survey results in casualties,affected population estimates,number of emergency placement and evaluation of economic losses.
Key words:  ShakeMap_CNST  Intensity map  Ground motion  Earthquake damage prediction  Jinghe MS6.6 earthquake in 2017