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| 2018年9月8日云南墨江5.9级地震预测回顾与资料论证 |
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杨建文1, 赵家本1, 张鹏映2, 何应文3, 王军1, 茶文剑1
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1.中国地震局滇西地震预报实验场办公室, 云南大理 671000;2.大理海东开发市政建设有限公司, 云南大理 671006;3.云南省地震局云县地震台, 云南临沧 675803
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| 摘要: |
| 通过分析墨江5.9级地震前预测意见和预测资料，认为云南地区M≥5.5地震平静异常突出，M≥5.0地震连续间隔时间达200天以上，通海2次5.0级地震震级偏小是震前地震活动异常的显著特征；通海地震的指示意义、前兆异常M≥5.7地震中期和M≥5.0地震短临综合预测指标是判断地震短期可能性的主要依据；1900年以来，通海50km范围内M≥5.0地震后云南地区发生M≥5.0地震优势对应关系和GNSS表征的区域面应变变化特征为地点判定提供了线索。墨江5.9级地震的预测经验及资料的论证丰富了对地震孕育复杂性的认识，为震例积累了新的资料。 |
| 关键词: 墨江5.9级地震 地震活动 综合预测 GNSS面应变 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P315 |
| 基金项目:云南省青年地震科学基金项目（2018k08）、云南省地震局科技专项基金（2018ZX04）共同资助 |
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| Forecast and Data Demonstration of the Mojiang MS5.9 Earthquake, Yunnan on September 8, 2018 |
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Yang Jianwen1, Zhao Jiaben1, Zhang Pengying2, He Yingwen3, Wang Jun1, Cha Wenjian1
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1.Office of the Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Study Area, CEA, Dali 671000, Yunnan, China;2.Dali Haidong Development Municipal Construction Co., Ltd. Dali 671006, Yunnan, China;3.Yunxian Seismic Station of Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Lincang 675803, Yunnan, China
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| Abstract: |
| By analyzing the forecast opinions and forecast data before the Mojiang MS5.9 earthquake,we found that the M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes in Yunnan are calm and abnormal,and the M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes have a continuous interval of more than 200 days. The small magnitude of the two earthquakes with M5.0 in Tonghai is a significant feature of seismic activity anomalies before the earthquake. The indication significance of the Tonghai earthquake and the precursory anomaly M ≥ 5.7 earthquake medium and M ≥ 5.0 earthquake short-term compre￣hensive forecast index is the main basis for judging the short-term risk of earthquake. Since 1900,the M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in the 50km range of Tonghai has shown M ≥ 5.0 seismic superiority correspondence and the regional surface strain variation characteristics of GNSS characterization,which provide clues for location determination. The forecast experience and data of the Mojiang MS5.9 earthquake enriches our understanding of the complexity of earthquakes and accumulates new information for earthquake case study. |
| Key words: The Mojiang MS5.9 earthquake Seismic activity Comprehensive forecast GNSS surface strain |
