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基于震例类比的震后趋势早期判定技术系统建设
刘珠妹1, 蒋海昆2, 李盛乐1, 黎明晓2, 汪园园1, 刘坚1
1.湖北省地震局, 地震预警湖北省重点实验室, 武汉 430071;2.中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045
摘要:
针对目前震后趋势早期判定中存在的基础知识库匮乏、产出规范化不足等问题,整理、完善、充实了震后趋势背景知识库,集成专家经验形成基于震例类比的震后趋势早期判定规则,并利用信息模板智能筛选技术,建立了震后趋势早期判定技术系统,实现了震情自动触发的地震基本概况(构造背景信息)、历史地震活动(震源机制、序列类型统计)、震后趋势研判意见等相关图件、文字、PPT报告的自动撰写与权限控制下的多平台推送。系统试运行8个月中,90%以上的震例产品在5min内产出;约80%的震例自动判定结果与人工研判结果基本吻合,震级差小于0.5;系统自动判定结果与地震实况的吻合度优于人工研判结果。试运行结果证明该系统在中国地震台网中心震后趋势快速研判中发挥了重要作用。
关键词:  震后趋势判定  震例类比  地震序列  模板筛选
DOI:
分类号:P315
基金项目:国家重大研发专项(2018YFC1503305)、中国地震局监测预报司能力提升项目经费共同资助
Aftershock Analysis and Forecasting System Construction Based on Seismic Analogy
Liu Zhumei1, Jiang Haikun2, Li Shengle1, Li Mingxiao2, Wang Yuanyuan1, Liu Jian1
1.Hubei Key Laboratory of Earthquake Early Warning, Hubei Earthquake Agency, Wuhan 430071, China;2.China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China
Abstract:
We enriched and organized the basic knowledge database and integrated expert experience into the rules for early post-earthquake trend decision,and then implemented the intelligent template technology to build the early aftershock analysis and forecasting system. It could automatically output the basic earthquake information,tectonic background,the historical seismic activity,seismic mechanism and sequence type statistics,the post-earthquake trend opinion or other related graphics,Word,PPT reports and finally push them up to multi-platform push under the control of permissions. The eight-month-long trial operation results show that more than 90% of the earthquake case products are produced within 5 minutes. About 80% of the automatic opinions are basically consistent with the results of the artificial decision,and the magnitude differences are less than 0.5 magnitude. What's more,the conformity of the system automatic output and the actual post-earthquake is better than the results of manual results.
Key words:  Post-earthquake trend decision  Earthquake case analogy  Earthquake sequence  Template filtering