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2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震前中期和短期预测依据与启示
宋治平1, 薛艳1, 马亚伟1, 宋春燕2, 张小涛1, 晏锐1, 孟令媛1, 闫伟1, 苑争一1
1.中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045;2.新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 乌鲁木齐 830011
摘要:
2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震发生在2020年度全国地震危险区内,震前作出了较好的中期(年度)和短期(月尺度和周尺度)预测,是少有的地球物理观测能力较低地区的强震前中期和短临预测较好震例。本文梳理了中期和短期预测的主要依据及其预测效能,研究表明,震前中期异常主要有流动地磁、多方法组合、5.0级地震平静打破、6.0级地震的准周期活动等;短期异常有4.0级地震活动图像、中源地震影响、于田垂直摆倾斜EW、于田GNSS基准站EW位移、和田GNSS基准站EW位移等。在总结震前分析预测过程的基础上,提出针对地球物理观测密度低地区的地震危险区论证和短临跟踪的建议,为该类地区的地震危险区判定及跟踪工作提供宝贵经验。
关键词:  2020年于田6.4级地震  中期预测  短期预测
DOI:
分类号:P315
基金项目:中美合作项目(2018YFE0109700)和震情跟踪面上项目(2020020101)共同资助
Review of Anomalies and Prediction Procedure of 2020 Yutian MS6.4 Earthquake in Xinjiang,China
Song Zhiping1, Xue Yan1, Ma Yawei1, Song Chunyan2, Zhang Xiaotao1, Yan Rui1, Meng Lingyuan1, Yan Wei1, Yuan Zhengyi1
1.China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China;2.Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
Abstract:
Before the Yutian MS6.4 earthquake on June 26,2020 in Xinjiang Province of China some prospective and predictive seismicity and precursory anomalies have been found. In this paper,we systematically reviewed and summarized the earthquake forecasting procedure before the Yutian earthquakes. In terms of medium-term earthquake forecasting,the Yutian earthquake is located in the potential area of the annual earthquake hazard map provided by the China Earthquake Administration. It is encouraging that the occurrence time,location,and magnitude of the Yutian earthquake are well predicted. The medium-term forecasting is mainly based on the anomalies of mobile geomagnetic observation,combination of multi-methods(MMEP),seismic quiescence with MS ≥ 5.0 and the quasi periodic characteristic of earthquakes with MS ≥ 6.0 in this region. In the shot-term stage before the Yutian earthquake,the main anomalies are from seismicity patterns with ML ≥ 4.0,the alert of the intermediate-depth earthquake occurrence,the vertical pendulum tilt meter at Yutian seismic station,the displacement changes in EW direction of Yutian and Hetian GNSS stations. For the Yutian earthquake,the geophysical anomalies as measured by sparse monitoring stations around,were evidently considerable precursors. These practical experiences allowed us to respond to and to conduct earthquake forecasting opinions quickly and efficiently. At last,we discussed lessons learned from the Yutian earthquake forecasting,including forecast procedures and identify both the seismicity and observed geophysical precursors before earthquake occurence.
Key words:  The 2020 Yutian MS6.4 earthquake  Medium-term earthquake forecasting  Short-term earthquake forecasting