| 摘要: |
| 基于1990—2020年地震灾害损失（包括经济损失、人员死亡和人员受伤）数据，分析了过去30年中国大陆地区地震灾害损失的时空分布特征。采用常规标准化方法分析了1990—2019年我国大陆地区地震灾害经济损失的时间分布，认为地震灾害在过去30年间逐渐由人身安全威胁向经济财产威胁转变。通过整理分析2011—2020年各省地震灾害的空间分布特征，认为有必要进一步强化四川、云南、甘肃的抗震设防工作，提升其抵御灾害地震风险的能力；在中东部经济较发达地区，应尤其关注地震造成的间接经济损失和人员受伤情况。通过各省的提取地形坡度因素，采用地统计方法定量计算地震损失与地形坡度因素间的空间相关性系数，认为在以自然条件为基础分析地震灾害的过程中，因震致死与地形的空间相关性不如经济损失和因震致伤高，结合过去30年地震灾害的时间分布特征，得出因震致死和因震致伤总体保持平稳，但经济损失急剧增长，且增长趋势越来越显著，这主要是由经济发展等社会人文因素导致。 |
| 关键词: 时空分布特征 常规标准化方法 地统计分析 空间相关系数 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P315 |
| 基金项目:地震应急信息快速可视化技术研究项目（2018YFC1504506）资助 |
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| Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Earthquake Hazards and Topographic Influences in Chinese Mainland |
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Zheng Tongyan, Wen Xintao, Chen Yahui, Li Huayue
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China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China
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| Abstract: |
| In this paper, we analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of earthquake hazards in Chinese mainland over the past 30 years based on data on earthquake disaster losses(including economic losses, human casualties and injuries) from 1990 to 2020. After analyzing the temporal distribution of economic losses from earthquake disasters in Chinese mainland between 1990-2019 by using conventional standardized methods, and combing with the original data on economic losses, human casualties(including missing persons), and human injuries during this time interval, we believed that earthquake disasters are gradually changing from threats to physical safety to economic property over the past 30 years. Through compiling and analyzing the spatial distribution characteristics of earthquake hazards by province during the 10-year period 2011-2020, we concluded that it is necessary to further strengthen the earthquake precaution in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Gansu to enhance their ability to withstand the seismic risk of disasters. In the more economically developed regions in the central-east, we should raise theattention on the indirect economic losses and human injuries caused by earthquakes, since the social impacts of earthquake hazards are the main consequences. By extracting the topographic slope factors by province and using geostatistical methods to quantify the spatial correlation coefficients between earthquake losses and topographic slope factors, we found that correlation of deaths due to earthquakes with topography is not as high as that of indirect losses. the spatial correlation between direct losses and topography is not as high as that of indirect losses because of the rapid economic development recently. |
| Key words: Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics Conventional standardized methods Geostatistical analysis Spatial correlation coefficient |
