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2022年1月8日青海门源6.9级地震短临异常跟踪分析
冯丽丽1,2, 李霞1,2, 赵玉红1,2, 张朋涛1,2
1.中国地震局青海格尔木青藏高原内部地球动力学野外科学观测研究站, 西宁 810001;2.青海省地震局, 西宁 810001
摘要:
2022年1月8日青海门源县发生6.9级地震,此次地震前青海地区出现了大量地球物理观测异常。2021年10月下旬青海地区出现地磁垂直强度极化高值异常,10月27日异常台站最多,并在门源-祁连至兴海地区形成一个面积约为6.6×104km2的高值异常区;此外,2021年7—11月青海地区8项地下流体观测数据出现准同步异常变化。结合青海及周边地区历史震例的分析结果,认为2021年11月23日至2022年1月23日,青海西北部地磁垂直强度极化高值区内可能发生5.6~6.4级地震。门源6.9级地震发生在地磁垂直强度极化异常出现后的73天,震中位于预测区的边缘,地震的发生时间和地点与预测意见一致,但震级超出预测意见上限值0.5级。此次地震前基于地球物理观测地震预测指标体系开展的短临异常跟踪分析过程,对中国大陆西部地震预报工作具有一定的参考意义。
关键词:  门源6.9级地震  短临异常  地磁垂直强度极化  地下流体异常  地震预测
DOI:
分类号:P315
基金项目:青藏高原岩石圈磁场与强震关系研究(2021-ZJ-969Q)、基于流磁矢量数据的青藏地区岩石圈磁场变化特征研究共同资助
A Short-term Prediction Practice on the Menyuan M6.9 Earthquake on January 8, 2022
Feng Lili1,2, Li Xia1,2, Zhao Yuhong1,2, Zhang Pengtao1,2
1.Golmud Geodynamics Field Observation and Research Station of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China Earthquake Administration, Xining 810001, China;2.Qinghai Earthquake Agency, Xining 810001, China
Abstract:
An M6.9 earthquake occurred in Menyuan county, Qinghai Province on January 8, 2022. Some geophysical precursory anomalies have been recorded in Qinghai region before this event. For example, obvious anomalies of geomagnetic vertical intensity polarization happened in Qinghai area at the end of October 2021. The number of anomalous stations reached the climax on October 27, and the anomaly area of 6.6×104km2 covered Menyuan-Qilian to Xinghai area in northwest Qinghai. In addition, from July to November in 2021, eight subsurface fluid observations in Qinghai region showed quasi-synchronous abnormal changes. With the reference of previous earthquake cases in Qinghai and its surrounding areas, we made a conclusion that an M5.6 to M6.4 earthquake might occur in geomagnetic anomalous area in northwest Qinghai from November 23, 2021 to January 23, 2022. Thus, a short impending earthquake prediction card had been provided. The Menyuan M6.9 earthquake occurred 73 days after the occurrence of the anomaly, and its epicenter is located at the boundary of the prediction area of geomagnetic vertical intensity polarization anomaly. In light of this practice, the predicted time and the epicentral location of the earthquake are basically good enough but the magnitude is 0.5 magnitude higher than expected. However, this short-term anomaly tracking and prediction practice will be of importance in Qinghai area and even in the western China.
Key words:  Menyuan M6.9 earthquake  Short impending anomaly  Geomagnetic vertical strength polarization  Subsurface fluid anomaly  Earthquake prediction