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| 青海、新疆和西藏地区地震活动平静特征参数Wq值强震预测模式及其应用 |
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黎明晓1, 王钦军2, 卢显1, 解孟雨1, 姚琪3, 薛艳1, 闫伟1
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1.中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045;2.中国科学院空天信息创新研究院, 数字地球重点实验室, 北京 100094;3.中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036
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| 摘要: |
| 以青海、新疆、西藏地区为研究区域,系统研究总结了该区域2010—2020年5.0级以上地震前Wq值的时空演化特征,并以2020年新疆于田6.4级和西藏尼玛6.6级地震为实例进行阐述。得出以下三点认识:①地震一般发生在Wq值异常扩展时段或扩展—减小时段,6.0级以上Wq值异常的震例中,约81%发生于异常出现后的9个月内;②地震一般位于Wq值异常面积扩展区或扩展—减小恢复区附近,近70%的震例发生在Wq值异常区内;③建立了震级与Wq值异常区面积间的正相关统计模型,二者的相关系数(R)为0.85,为预测青海、新疆和西藏地区地震的强度提供了定量关系。青海、新疆和西藏地区Wq值方法对6.0～6.9级地震的预测效果(Wq值异常的地震报准率为61%)优于5.0～5.9级地震(Wq值异常的地震报准率为26%),为我国地球物理观测程度较低地区开展强震中短期(1年内)预测提供了参考依据。 |
| 关键词: Wq值 于田6.4级地震 尼玛6.6级地震 震级定量判定 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P315 |
| 基金项目:中国地震局震情跟踪(2022020501)、国家自然科学基金(41704062)和国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1503305)共同资助 |
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| A Wq-based Strong Earthquake Prediction Model and Its Application in Qinghai,Xinjiang and Tibet Areas |
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Li Mingxiao1, Wang Qinjun2, Lu Xian1, Xie Mengyu1, Yao Qi3, Xue Yan1, Yan Wei1
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1.China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China;2.Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China;3.Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, CEA, Beijing 100036, China
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| Abstract: |
| In this paper,the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of Wq values before earthquakes above MS5.0 in Qinghai,Xinjiang and Tibet since 2010 to 2020 were systematically summarized. The Xinjiang Yutian MS6.4 earthquake on June 26,2020 and the Tibet Nima MS6.6 earthquake on July 23,2020 are taken as examples. The research results suggest that:① Strong earthquakes generally occurred during the Wq values expansion or expansion-decrement periods and about 81% occurred within 9 months after the appearance of the Wq anomaly. ② The epicenters of the earthquakes were generally near the Wq values anomaly expansion areas or the areas of expansion-decrement recovery and nearly 70% of the earthquakes occurred in the area of Wq value anomaly. ③ With a correlation coefficient(R)of 0.85,the statistical relationship between the magnitude and the areas of abnormal Wq was established,which provided a quantitative model for the prediction of medium-short term earthquakes in Qinghai,Xinjiang and Tibet Areas. The prediction effect of Wq value method for MS6.0 ～6.9 earthquakes in Qinghai,Xinjiang and Tibet area(with hit rate of 61%)was better than that of MS5.0 ～5.9 earthquakes(with hit rate of 26%). Therefore,the model is significant for the prediction of medium-short term(within one year)strong earthquakes in the area with lower ability of geophysical observation in China. |
| Key words: Wq value The Yutian MS6.4 earthquake The Nima MS6.6 earthquake Quantitative determination of magnitude |
